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UID:1653987600@ist.ac.at
DTSTART:20220531T110000
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DESCRIPTION:Speaker: Michael Ghil\nhosted by Caroline Muller / ISTA Sustain
 ability Group\nAbstract: It is common to refer to climate variability as b
 eing associated with processes that are internal to the climate system and
  to climate change as being associated with the effect of external forces 
 that are time dependent. The “death of stationarity” poses a substanti
 al challenge to climate predictability and to the climate sciences in gene
 ral. This challenge is addressed herein by formulating the problems of cha
 nge in the climate’s intrinsic variability within the framework of the t
 heory of nonautonomous and random dynamical systems (NDSs and RDSs) with t
 ime-dependent forcing. A key role in this theory is played by the pullback
  attractors (PBAs) that replace the strange attractors of the more familia
 r theory of autonomous dynamical systems\, in which there is no explicit t
 ime dependence of either forcing or coefficients.The concepts and methods 
 of the NDS and RDS approach will be introduced and will be illustrated usi
 ng a stochastically perturbed version of the Lorenz (1963) convection mode
 l. This illustration will be followed by an application to a minimal model
  of the interaction between the globally averaged temperature and carbon d
 ioxide concentration\, MinTC. This model exhibits multidecadal oscillation
 s and bistability\, with a runaway greenhouse for a severe scenario of ant
 hropogenic greenhouse gas increase. MinTC is being coupled to a macroecono
 mic model of the social cost of carbon (SCC) and\, time permitting\, some 
 preliminary results will be discussed.ReferencesBarnett\, M.\, W. A. Brock
 \, and L. P. Hansen\, 2020: Pricing uncertainty induced by climate change.
  Rev. Financial Studies\, 33(3)\, 1024–1066.Ghil\, M.\, and V. Lucarini\
 , 2020: The physics of climate variability and climate change\, Rev. Mod. 
 Phys.\, 92(3)\, 035002\, doi: 10.1103/RevModPhys.92.035002 (file:///Users/
 michaelghil/Desktop/Master_Lists/10.1103/RevModPhys.92.035002).
LOCATION:Mondi 1\, Central Building & Online\, ISTA
ORGANIZER:andreas.ehrmann@ist.ac.at
SUMMARY:Michael Ghil: The Death of Stationarity and the Runaway Greenhouse
URL:https://talks-calendar.ista.ac.at/events/3742
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