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DTSTART:20210328T030000
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DTSTART:20211031T020000
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DTSTAMP:20260406T024139Z
UID:60a7680530701826482853@ist.ac.at
DTSTART:20210531T133000
DTEND:20210531T143000
DESCRIPTION:Speaker: Emmanuel Schertzer\nAbstract: In this talk\, we will d
 iscuss a few projects initiated by the SMILE group (Collge de France/Sorbo
 nne Universit) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. I will present a general an
 d tractable framework for modeling and "nowcasting the epidemic at a natio
 nal scale. Our approach is based on a fairly general individual based mode
 l at the individual level capturing the main features of the epidemic (pre
 sence of asymptomatics\, large heterogeneity in the population etc.). We s
 how that despite the underlying complexity of our microscopic model\, the 
 global scale of the epidemic (i.e.\, when the number of infected gets larg
 e) is well captured by a deterministic McKendrickVan Foerster 1-d PDE\, an
 d that such an approximation allows us to make robust predictions on the f
 ate of the epidemic. I will also show how this approach allows to make som
 e theoretical predictions on contact-tracing data. Finally\, and if time p
 ermits\, I will discuss some spatial aspects of the epidemics.
LOCATION:Online Event ()\, ISTA
ORGANIZER:kkhudiak@ist.ac.at
SUMMARY:Emmanuel Schertzer: Probabilistic models related to the SARS-CoV-2 
 pandemic
URL:https://talks-calendar.ista.ac.at/events/3205
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